Ukraine – Military Summary And Analysis 2023.03.07
By Military Summary
Here’s what others had to say:
I have continuously felt that battle for Bakhmut was eerily similar to what Field Marshal Paulus faced at Stalingrad. He had opportunities to evacuate when the situation became dire due to Russian threatening his flanks. However Hitler did now allow him to withdraw which led to the annihilation of the German 6th Army together with Romanian and Italian Units. It was a massacre.
Russia is firing 15,000 artillery shells a day just in the Bakhmut section of the front, while Ukraine is only firing 5000 a day in the WHOLE frontline. If anyone thinks that Ukraine has a chance that person is delusional.
It’s likely that the Russian can delay their offensive since the Ukrainians are coming to them. Bakhmut has now become a truly strategic location and maybe were the war is decided. Ukraine is chasing events, reacting too things rather then initiating them. This is not a good sign.
Levan Gudadze – Opinion
Well.. I don’t know how it is in other countries, but here in Russia we get the impression that the Bakhmut cauldron is a reality now and contrary to the statements of the Zelensky regime, there is no longer any salvation for the Ukrainian forces that find themselves in the actual encirclement, except to surrender to the Russian side and save their lives.
Russia is fighting roughly 13 (34 if you count Financial) countries on Ukrainian soil. I’d say that’s a force deserving of respect no matter how you slice it.
13:1 and winning on the ground
34 paying Ukraine but really same 32/34 are buying Russian Oil.
My own formula is to divide Russian numbers – from daily reports – over 2 and Ukrainian’s, over 10. This way I have pretty clear picture of the situation in the field.
Sailing with Marguerite
Thank you Dima as always YOU ARE THE SOURCE OF ACCURATE INFO in the battle field. Take care and have a great day. Your supporter and patron from California USA.
They Russians may as well forget about east of the river now. Leave it wide open to tempt the Ukr soldiers to head in that direction with as much equipment as they can carry. Just target any vehicles. Let them push as far to the east as they like….which is now effectively walking into captivity. Many will do just that.
Thanks to Dima for a very interesting discussion of the situation around Bakhmut. Ukraine is in a catastrophic situation – losing 10-20,000 soldiers who are trapped. But the Clown Zelensky always knows how to make a losing situation even more catastrophic. In order to save 10-20,000 soldiers who are already lost, the Comedian Zelensky will sacrifice another 10,000 soldiers plus tanks and more to “save” them. It’s for nothing – the “rescuers” will just be lost too. Russia has got superior numbers, superior equipment, Russia is preparing its positions around Bakhmut and has got an artillery advantage of 10 to 1. Russia can easily destroy Ukrainian artillery AND at the same time have lots of artillery to destroy Ukrainians in and around Bakhmut. Ukraine is also losing tanks every day and has few left. France is sending some AMX 10-RC wheeled vehicles with thin armor and just a 105 mm gun probably later in March, but beyond that, Ukraine is getting just about no tanks soon. Russia will be happy to give a warm welcome, when Zelensky makes a show of his last tanks around Bakhmut. Zelensky’s pretension to make a “counteroffensive” against Melitopol this Spring was also just a comedy, but losing more forces everywhere, Ukraine won’t even have enough to pretend a show against Zaporizhzhia later in Spring 2023. US President Biden is really driving this war to the death of the last Ukrainian.
The fighting in Bakhmut area will continue for weeks. It’s a big battlefield. Russia will get the win. But these battles, fought this way, will take time.
excellent analysis. just great. thnx, summary. historic battle, very serious.
I dont think the russians can afford to lose bakhmut either, no matter what. It would be a huge blow for the army morale and the nation support for the SMO.
This is how it ends when a commander in chief is Standup Comedian Great Strategy… He is the most important Russian asset
Excellent reporting, Dima! Thank you. According to the Wagnerians, 12,000 to 20,000 Ukrainian soldiers are still in Artyómovsk (Артё́мовск). That seems like a highly inflated number. If that is true, the city must be ready to fall almost immediately, because of the failure of necessary logistics for such a large number. The Russians are probably bringing up their TOS-1 and -2 flamethrowers to launch against the militants in the noose, fearsome weapons which will make short work of the trapped men.
If the Ukroids attempt to attack from the northwest along the M-03 highway, the Russians will be ready for them and annihilate their entire force by artillery, drones and aircraft. There is no way the Biden-Zelenskiy forces can break through to save their doomed comrades in Artyómovsk. The grave is already waiting for all of the many thousands of Ukroids with open arms.
Ukraines assistance is based on military gains. Getting pushed out of Bahkmut is not good especially from a media prospective.
Dima as usual your analysis of the situation is perfect.
What I understood is both sides are trying to capitalise on each other’s weaknesses. Russian forces know that NATO likes media attention and media perception is utmost important to NATO. So, the Russian military is purposefully creating a condition such that Bachmut remains in the limelight while Russian forces make short of Ukrainian forces on Kremmena, Lyman and Kherson front.
NATO knows Russian weakness as well. It’s Russian lethargy and its weakness in analysing and understanding the ground dynamics quickly.
The West is sending reinforcement to Bachmut so that it can sandwich the Wagner forces from Kramatosk, Slavyinsk, Konstantina front. And create a Cauldron for the Wagner forces. For the West, that’s the best strategy to save its soldiers trapped in Bachmut.
The British mind can be read easily if one is well aware of the war history. Mongols and Mughals how they used to lay seize of any town or fortress and how they used to Stop food and water supply and force the seized town forces to come out. For the seized town only hope to win over the enemy lied in any outside military support from another Kingdom. If Seized town used to get another Kingdom military support, seized town forces used to attack the enemy from front whole supporting the Kingdom military used to attack from the rear and create a huge cauldron. Hence, the seizing army used to get beseized itself and used to lose as it’s logistics supply used to get cut off.
My take on Zelensky’s insistence of “No Surrender” at Bakhmut is a new phase of personal and presidential martydom. After it falls he will cry and cry and cry about how he’s been deceived and disobeyed and let down and victimised. He’s in a classic bipolar mood swing phase — seeing as how just 4 days ago HE DID SAY “We will not hold onto Bakhmut if the situation becomes untenable and would waste good men”. That was when the (commonsense) exit started (by platoon commanders) … and it has been dribbling out ever since then. Then today he says “No. Everybody stays. No surrender”. Classic mental breakdown syndrome. Proof that he doesn’t know what is sensible anymore.
Russia has them trapped. All roads out of Bakhmut are withing 1 KM of small arms fire right now and the mud is bogging down any movement even on foot. To try and cross the killing fields now is suicide. The 12-20K stuck in Bakhmut would rather die fighting than die trying to run through the killing fields to get out of Bakmut. Russia has brought up massive amounts of artillery and will start dropping glide bombs and 500’s, 1000’s, and 1500’s bombs to level whole tall buildings. 1500’s leave a crater 50 feet deep so any tunnels hit will collapse and not be much protection. The Russians have the Ukrainians right where they want them and can start pounding them into dust. This is an Alamo moment for Ukraine. Russian ground forces are digging in around the city. Wagner has requested more ammo and supplies to make sure they have more than enough to grind down those trapped in the city. Sad truth is very few of those trapped in Bakumt are going to get out alive. Peace would have been a far better option than what is going to happen next.
Original source: https://youtu.be/s0eO9VvsL10